In the recent weeks, the gold and silver markets have seen a resurgence, driven by the weakening US dollar and muted inflationary pressure, as reflected in last week’s CPI data. The DXY closed at 99.96, marking its lowest point since April of the previous year, and pointing to a dismal technical outlook for the dollar. In light of this, many investors are weighing the merits of gold and silver, and trying to determine which is the better investment.
Both metals possess their unique advantages and historical contexts that shape their value and perception in the investment world. An invaluable tool in assessing the prospects of gold versus silver is the gold/silver ratio, which gives a comparative view of the price dynamics of these two metals.
Historically, gold and silver tend to move in sync on any given day, with silver being more price-volatile. The gold/silver ratio – the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold – has fluctuated significantly over time, marking the divergence in the performance of these two metals. In May 2011, the ratio hit a low of just under 40 when silver prices soared to nearly $50/oz. It reached a high of almost 120 in 2020, and currently hovers around 78.
To put this in perspective, the average ratio over the past three decades is approximately 60, and it drops to under 40 when considering the last 80 years. The “natural ratio,” or the proportion of silver in the Earth’s crust relative to gold, is estimated at 10, a figure drastically different from the current market ratio. Looking at historical benchmarks, such as the “classic ratio” of 15-16 used in many societies as far back as the 12th century, silver appears underpriced relative to gold. This suggests that silver might see significant upward movement in the coming years.
However, history does not always dictate the future. Some financial advisors posit that gold, being a prominent monetary metal held by central banks globally, will likely outshine silver in a monetary crisis. The fact that gold is culturally embraced, particularly in regions like the Indian subcontinent, bolsters its status. The vast amount of gold wealth in India suggests a robust demand that can support gold prices.
Conversely, silver should not be overlooked as a monetary metal. Its historical use as money often surpasses gold, and its status as an inflation hedge remains strong in the minds of investors worldwide. Recently, as confidence in the dollar has waned, investment demand for both gold and silver has surged, with silver often being the metal of choice for those anticipating an economic breakdown.
Furthermore, silver’s growing industrial application positions it favorably for increased demand. New uses in sectors such as solar energy, high tech, and healthcare are emerging, which alongside its investment demand, provide a solid foundation for future growth. Unlike gold, which is rarely consumed and continually accumulates as it is mined, most industrial silver is consumed and not recycled, thus reducing its overall supply.
For long-term investors looking for potentially higher returns, our recommendation is to overweight silver in their portfolios. It’s crucial to remember, however, that silver is more volatile than gold, and might not suit those uncomfortable with pronounced price swings.
Gold carries some practical benefits as well; it enables the storage of more value in less space, making it easier to transport. Regardless, in this era of inflation and uncertainty, both gold and silver are expected to outperform Federal Reserve notes, marking them as worthy considerations for portfolio diversification.
In conclusion, the decision between gold and silver largely depends on an individual’s investment goals, risk tolerance, and perspective on future economic scenarios. While historical data and current trends provide valuable insights, individual considerations should also play a vital role in this decision. Both metals have proven their resilience and value preservation capabilities across centuries, reinforcing their status as strategic assets in any well-diversified portfolio.
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