El Niño’s Embrace: Unraveling Its Impact on Global Commodities

As weather patterns continue to astonish the world, a term frequently thrown around in the meteorological arena is “El Niño.” With the recent announcement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighting a 90% probability of El Niño continuing through the latter half of 2023, questions arise on its implications for commodities. Let’s dive into understanding the phenomenon and its consequential ripple effect on global commodities.

Understanding El Niño

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a pivotal oceanic-atmospheric event rooted in the irregular variations of surface water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific. In simpler terms, it is a dance between two phenomena – La Niña, bringing colder, wetter weather, and El Niño, ushering in warmer, drier climes. As El Niño gathers momentum, it redistributes warm water and subsequently, evaporation and rainfall. This results in regions like southeast Asia and Australia becoming drier, while areas such as Peru and Ecuador see an uptick in rainfall.

Figure 1: El Niño climate impacts December – February

El Niño's Embrace: Unraveling Its Impact on Global Commodities

Climate Impact: An Overheated World

This year, the repercussions of El Niño have been glaring. With vast areas in the Northern Hemisphere grappling with sweltering heat and unprecedented rainfall, July 2023 stands as the hottest month on record. China’s temperature scales toppled, the US sweltered under relentless heatwaves, Canada’s wildfires became historically rampant, and the Mediterranean didn’t fare much better.

Decoding Commodities Under El Niño’s Watch

Figure 2: Price impact on agricultural commodities over the historical El Niño cycles

El Niño's Embrace: Unraveling Its Impact on Global Commodities

Agricultural commodities are invariably intertwined with weather patterns, with El Niño acting as a catalyst for some and a detriment for others.

1. The Rise and Rise of Soybean Oil: With the onset of El Niño, palm oil supply often sees a dent, and this year, nearly 40% of Indonesia’s oil palm areas reported below-average precipitation. This deficit in palm oil supply invariably pushes demand towards alternatives like soybean oil, a trend compounded by geopolitical unrest in regions like the Black Sea.

2. Rice in the Crosshairs: As dry spells loom over Thailand, a significant rice exporter, farmers are advised to curtail their planting activities. With India, the leading rice exporter, implementing bans on certain rice exports, the ripple effects might propel wheat, another staple, into the spotlight.

3. Cocoa’s Silver Lining: El Niño has historically parched West Africa, a hub for cocoa cultivation. The arid conditions, coupled with issues like black pod disease prevalent in major producers like Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria, pose threats to cocoa output. With the market potentially witnessing its third consecutive year of deficit by 2023-24, cocoa prices are poised to receive a boost.

Wrapping Up

While the full might of an El Niño event remains shrouded in uncertainty, its intersection with geopolitical disturbances amplifies concerns. With stockpiles of key commodities like wheat, corn, soybean oil, and cocoa trailing behind their 5-year averages, any disruption in production can cause significant market volatility. All said and done, El Niño seems geared to be a defining factor for agricultural commodities in the foreseeable future.

Author:Com21.com,This article is an original creation by Com21.com. If you wish to repost or share, please include an attribution to the source and provide a link to the original article.Post Link:https://www.com21.com/el-ninos-embrace-unraveling-its-impact-on-global-commodities.html

Like (1)
Previous August 17, 2023 9:49 am
Next August 18, 2023 3:09 pm

Related Posts

  • Outlook for Corn Prices in 2023: Key Factors to Watch

    Corn prices have been in the spotlight in recent years, with market fluctuations and demand changes affecting the global food and fuel markets. In 2023, the outlook for corn prices remains uncertain, with both positive and negative factors affecting the market. One major factor affecting corn prices in 2023 is the global demand for food and biofuels. As the world’s population continues to grow, demand for corn as a food source is expected to increase, driving up prices. Meanwhile, the increasing use of corn for biofuels is also expected to…

    February 7, 2023
  • Balancing Opportunities and Risks: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook on the Commodities Market

    The global commodity market is an intricate, complex ecosystem that impacts every aspect of our lives – from the cars we drive to the homes we build. It is a challenging environment where a level of caution is often warranted. However, there are several reasons for an optimistic outlook, particularly within the energy sector. In June, we saw an encouraging expansion in the market breadth, with cyclical sectors adding to the rally initiated by technology shares. This was fueled by indications of tempering inflation in the face of largely resilient…

    July 21, 2023
  • The Resilience of Beef Demand: Navigating Price Hikes and Cut Preferences in the Summer Grilling Season

    As the sweltering days of summer set in and the familiar scent of barbecued fare wafts through neighborhoods, the annual grilling season kicks off. This year, however, the sizzle on your grill might sound a bit different. With increasing beef prices, consumers are turning to secondary cuts such as brisket, skirt, hanger, and flank steaks to satisfy their cravings, saving pricier middle cuts for special occasions. Despite the changes in the cuts being grilled, one thing remains steady – the strong demand for meat. Taking the Lead in Summer Grilling…

    July 11, 2023
  • Soybean Surge: Unpacking the Brightening Demand Picture

    Introduction The soybean market has been making headlines recently, and for good reason. With a combination of factors ranging from strong export sales to favorable domestic conditions, soybean prices are on the rise. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the key drivers behind this surge in demand for soybeans and what it means for both investors and the agricultural industry. Export Sales and Soybean Meal Prices One of the primary catalysts behind the recent soybean price surge is the strong support from export sales and soybean meal prices. Soybean…

    November 1, 2023
  • Navigating the Soybean and Soybean Oil Market: Insights from the Latest USDA Report

    Introduction In the ever-evolving world of commodities trading, staying informed about the latest developments is paramount for investors and traders alike. This week’s USDA supply and demand report brought some important insights into the soybean market, shedding light on the impact of late-season weather and changes in demand dynamics. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the key takeaways from the report and discuss the implications for soybeans and soybean oil. US Soybean Yield and Pod Counts The USDA’s 2023/24 soybean yield projection came in at 50.1 bushels per acre,…

    September 18, 2023
  • Drought and Inflation: A Looming Threat to Global Food Security

    Just as the world was starting to breathe a sigh of relief after the tumultuous impact of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on food prices, a new threat looms on the horizon. A drought spanning across America’s breadbasket threatens to exacerbate food inflation, further straining consumers’ wallets. The dry spell has affected the wheat fields of the Great Plains and the Corn Belt in the Upper Midwest, leaving some areas with mere fractions of their regular rainfall as we approach crucial growing periods for corn and soybeans. This…

    July 1, 2023
  • Global Copper Shortage Could Last Till 2030

    According to analysts, a global copper deficit is expected to affect the markets throughout 2023 and potentially last for the rest of the decade. The current shortage is being driven by challenges in South American supply streams and rising demand.Copper plays a crucial role in measuring the economic health as it is widely used in various applications, including electrical equipment and industrial machinery. A shortage of copper may signal a worsening of global inflationary pressures, leading to a prolonged hawkish stance by central banks.Robin Griffin, Vice President of Metals and…

    February 7, 2023
  • Lithium and Gold Shine Bright: The Lone Stars in H1 2023 Commodities Performance

    The dawn of H2 2023 provides us with the opportune moment to reflect on the half-year performance of the commodities market. According to our regularly updated Periodic Table of Commodities Returns, just two commodities yielded positive returns during the first half of the year: lithium and gold. Riding High on Lithium In H1 2023, lithium carved out a 10.81% return, a performance that crowned it the best-performing commodity. It was also one of only two commodities to record a positive return during this period; the other was gold. Other commodities…

    July 12, 2023
  • Outlook for Wheat Prices in 2023: Analyzing Key Factors

    Wheat prices are a critical component of the global food and agriculture industries, with fluctuations affecting both producers and consumers worldwide. In 2023, the outlook for wheat prices remains uncertain, with a range of positive and negative factors influencing the market. One major factor affecting wheat prices in 2023 is the global demand for food and animal feed. As the world’s population continues to grow, demand for wheat as a staple food source is expected to increase, driving up prices. Additionally, the growing demand for animal feed made from wheat…

    February 7, 2023
  • The Versatility and Importance of Zinc in the Metal Market

    Zinc is an essential metal used in many industries such as construction, transportation, and electronics. It is a widely available and versatile metal that has unique characteristics that make it an attractive target in the metal market. In this article, we will explore what makes zinc an unique target in the metal market. Abundance: Zinc is the 24th most abundant element in the Earth’s crust. It is found in minerals such as sphalerite, wurtzite, and smithsonite. The largest reserves of zinc are found in Australia, China, and Peru. Its abundance…

    February 22, 2023

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *