Commodity Investment

Introduction: In the world of commodity investing, few stories are as compelling as the one currently unfolding in the cocoa market. Cocoa, the key ingredient in our beloved chocolate, has been facing a series of challenges, and the latest twist in the tale comes in the form of El Nino. In this blog post, we’ll explore why cocoa may have more upside potential ahead, driven by the looming El Nino event and its potential impact on global production. El Nino’s Return: El Nino, a climate phenomenon known for its disruptive…

Introduction In the ever-evolving world of commodities trading, staying informed about the latest developments is paramount for investors and traders alike. This week’s USDA supply and demand report brought some important insights into the soybean market, shedding light on the impact of late-season weather and changes in demand dynamics. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the key takeaways from the report and discuss the implications for soybeans and soybean oil. US Soybean Yield and Pod Counts The USDA’s 2023/24 soybean yield projection came in at 50.1 bushels per acre,…

In the chaotic theatre of global economics, energy and its pivotal player, oil, have always been front and center. The narrative of oil in 2022 was one of ascendancy. However, this year, that storyline seems to have taken a nuanced turn. As the energy stocks slow their pace, many are left wondering about the fate of oil prices and the overall energy sector. Energy Stocks: A Pause in the Momentum Let’s dive right in: energy stocks, after their spectacular performance in 2022, are taking a pit-stop this year. While the…

Stock markets have been surging, with an 18.7% uptick year-to-date, invigorating portfolios and 401(k)s. But here’s a shocking revelation: a mere ten S&P 500 companies have contributed to over 80% of these gains in 2023. The tech giant Apple alone has fueled a whopping 15.6% of the market’s growth. For many, this concentration might seem like a boom. But, as with any financial structure skewed heavily towards a handful of players, there lurk risks beneath the surface, posing potential threats to unsuspecting investors. S&P 500’s Concentration Dilemma A closer look…

The ebb and flow of the cattle industry is as fascinating as it is intricate. If you’ve been tracking the rise in Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures prices since mid-2020, you know that the industry is in a unique phase of its historical cattle cycle. Let’s delve deeper into understanding the dynamics and trends that continue to shape this crucial sector of agriculture. The Current Landscape: Prices and Droughts Recently, on August 4, 2023, front-month Feeder Cattle futures marked a record high of $249.525/cwt. This peak can be attributed…

Soybeans have long been an integral part of the global agricultural landscape, forming the foundation of countless products and a significant segment of global trade. As such, the health and yield of the soybean crop are of paramount importance to farmers, traders, and even everyday consumers. This year’s crop tour was met with heightened anticipation, especially given the early-season adversities and pronounced variability in crop growth. However, the recent findings and the unfolding climatic conditions suggest that the soybean crops might be headed for some severe challenges. Early Anticipation and…

As weather patterns continue to astonish the world, a term frequently thrown around in the meteorological arena is “El Niño.” With the recent announcement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighting a 90% probability of El Niño continuing through the latter half of 2023, questions arise on its implications for commodities. Let’s dive into understanding the phenomenon and its consequential ripple effect on global commodities. Understanding El Niño The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a pivotal oceanic-atmospheric event rooted in the irregular variations of surface water temperatures in the…

Cocoa, an indispensable commodity and the vital ingredient behind our favorite chocolate products, has been experiencing an unprecedented whirlwind in the markets. The week began with a rally of $120 early Monday, reaching a 12 1/2 year high, only to be followed by a sharp $280 drop through mid-session Tuesday, leading to its four-week low early Friday. This article aims to provide a comprehensive outlook on cocoa’s supply landscape, which appears to be tightening in the wake of multiple influences, both macro and micro. Let’s explore the contributing factors in…

The global commodity market is an intricate, complex ecosystem that impacts every aspect of our lives – from the cars we drive to the homes we build. It is a challenging environment where a level of caution is often warranted. However, there are several reasons for an optimistic outlook, particularly within the energy sector. In June, we saw an encouraging expansion in the market breadth, with cyclical sectors adding to the rally initiated by technology shares. This was fueled by indications of tempering inflation in the face of largely resilient…

In the sprawling wheat fields of Sharon Springs, Kansas, waves of golden wheat fall rhythmically under the combine operated by Laura Haffner. The wheat fields, covering 320 acres in this far-west region, are some of the most bountiful she has seen this season – a stark contrast to the devastating impacts of the years-long drought predicted to produce one of the poorest wheat crops in the country’s history. A break in the drought occurred unexpectedly in May, with heavy rains extending into July. Although this was a welcome respite for…