As any seasoned value investor knows, the specter of value traps haunts every investment decision. A value trap is essentially a stock that seems cheap, enticing the investor with visions of untapped potential and significant returns, but the anticipated appreciation never materializes. The stock, cheap for a reason, might even depreciate, leading to losses. Understanding these value traps is critical for value investors.
The Academic Perspective on Value Traps
Value investing generally works on two premises. First, value stocks offer excess returns due to the inherent risk associated with them. Second, the behavioral explanation: market participants often overreact to issues associated with value companies, pushing their prices lower than their fundamentals would suggest.
The disagreement in the investment world centers around the second premise. Market efficiency proponents question this perspective, believing instead that the risk factor alone accounts for the higher returns. The key phrase here is “on average.” Value traps are possible because even if investors get paid to take on the risk of value stocks and these stocks are frequently mispriced, a subset of these stocks will perform worse than average. This subgroup constitutes the value traps.
The Inescapability of Value Traps
Unfortunately, completely avoiding value traps is an unachievable goal. As value investors, we often find ourselves drawn to companies shunned by the market. These companies usually carry inherent business risks. However, our focus should be on managing, not eliminating, value traps through incremental improvements without discarding the underlying premise of value investing.
The Role of Quality in Managing Value Traps
Positive and negative quality characteristics can be used to manage value traps. For example, we could look for value stocks that also exhibit high-quality characteristics such as high returns on capital, steady sales and earnings, and healthy balance sheets. However, these companies are rarely cheap, and adding such criteria reduces exposure to value.
On the other hand, focusing on negative quality allows us to weed out the worst-performing companies without compromising on value. This approach involves identifying and eliminating stocks with the poorest prospects, minimizing the risk of falling into value traps.
Six Criteria to Navigate Value Traps
Here are six criteria that can help guide investors around value traps:
- Earnings Expected to Fall: Despite their unreliability, analyst estimates tend to be directionally accurate when predicting large deviations. If these estimates reflect a significant change from past results used in our valuation ratios, they are worth considering.
- Inferior Cash Flows: Cash flows are harder to manipulate than earnings. Filtering out situations where cash flows paint a bleak picture of the business relative to earnings can be beneficial.
- High Debt: Debt amplifies problems. A high debt company will find it more challenging to overcome obstacles. Using a composite of different metrics to screen out high debt companies can mitigate this risk.
- Deteriorating Fundamentals: Using a system such as the Twin Momentum strategy, based on Dashan Huang’s paper, which relies on seven variables to calculate a firm’s fundamental momentum, can help identify and exclude companies showing the worst fundamental momentum.
- Poor Economic Margin: A company should ideally earn a return on capital that exceeds its cost of capital. Companies where the opposite is true are better avoided.
- Low Relative Strength: A catch-all criterion, this helps to identify companies missed by other screens. The weakest performers, in terms of market-relative strength, often have negative aspects that aren’t reflected in fundamental screens.
Once we rank our universe using these six criteria, we create a combined ranking and eliminate the worst 10% of all stocks. We aim to eliminate only the most significant offenders, not every company showing slight issues with these variables.
Conclusion
It is crucial to understand that the complete elimination of value traps is impossible. Attempts to do so might inadvertently remove exposure to potential star performers. Instead, our system aims to achieve marginal improvements by eliminating companies where past fundamentals are least indicative of future performance, offering a more sensible approach to the value trap conundrum.
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