Silver: Anticipating the Great Spike Ahead


Silver, often referred to as the ‘poor man’s gold,’ has garnered increased attention and investment interest in recent years. As a financial advisor and silver investing expert, I have maintained a bullish outlook on silver and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). The rationale behind this optimism lies in silver’s undervaluation compared to the price of gold and the broader commodity complex. In this blog post, I will discuss why silver still presents an excellent investment opportunity, potentially leading to a substantial price spike.


The SLV ETF has been a reliable instrument for tracking the spot price of silver with minimal tracking error. It boasts an expense fee of 0.50%, which is notably lower than the spreads involved in buying physical silver. While there are competing ETFs like the abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) with slightly lower expenses, SLV remains the largest and most liquid silver ETF with $11.4 billion in assets.

However, it’s essential to note that ounces under management in SLV experienced a peak during the Reddit-inspired silver short squeeze in January 2021 and have since fallen by over 30%.

Silver: Anticipating the Great Spike Ahead

Silver’s Undervaluation:

In a previous article from April 6, it was argued that silver’s undervaluation and strong price action suggested the potential for a parabolic spike in both the metal and the SLV ETF. Since then, silver has experienced a pullback, forming another higher low, setting the stage for a potential upward move.

The rally in silver’s price from its 2022 lows has reduced its undervaluation concerning gold and the Bloomberg commodity index. After trading around 40% below fair value in October, silver is now less than 10% undervalued based on its correlation with a 50:50 basket of gold and commodities.

Not Yet at a Bull Market Peak:

Silver’s recent gains have occurred despite a broader decline in the commodity complex. However, there’s a strong bullish outlook for silver, especially with the recovery in risk appetite. Factors like the weak CPI release and falling interest rate expectations have led to a decline in the dollar and a rise in real assets, which are expected to provide support to silver and the SLV.

Historical patterns indicate that silver bull markets tend to conclude when silver becomes overvalued relative to gold and the broader commodity complex. Several instances in the past, such as in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2020, saw silver prices spiking into overvalued territory before bull markets ended. We can expect another such move before the current bull market concludes.

Options markets also play a role in this analysis. Low levels of implied volatility in options markets present an opportunity for silver bulls to take large bets on significant silver upside at relatively low cost.

Reconciling Silver and Gold Views:

Some readers may find it contradictory to have a bullish view on silver while holding bearish views on gold. Given the close correlation between the two metals, it’s unlikely for silver to rise while gold falls. Historically, silver has tended to weaken relative to gold when gold prices decline due to its higher volatility.

However, the key to understanding this apparent contradiction lies in the risk-reward trade-off. The aim is to achieve exposure to the outperformance of silver in risk-adjusted terms. The performance of gold relative to silver over the past 20 years, after adjusting for their respective volatilities, highlights that silver has had periods of outperformance.

Silver: Anticipating the Great Spike Ahead


In conclusion, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) provides an attractive opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing rise of silver from undervalued levels. The history of silver bull markets suggests that a spike higher is likely, during which silver outperforms both gold and the broader commodity complex.

Options market positioning indicates that investors may be underestimating the potential for such a move. As a financial advisor and silver expert, my outlook remains bullish, and I advise investors to consider silver as a valuable addition to their portfolios while keeping a watchful eye on potential spikes in the silver market.,This article is an original creation by If you wish to repost or share, please include an attribution to the source and provide a link to the original article.Post Link:

Like (1)
Previous October 17, 2023 11:37 pm
Next October 18, 2023 2:32 pm

Related Posts

  • Top 5 Websites to Buy Silver and Gold Online: A Comprehensive Guide

    Introduction Investing in precious metals like silver and gold has always been a popular strategy for wealth preservation and growth. With the rise of e-commerce, buying silver and gold online has never been easier. In this article, we will introduce the top 5 websites for purchasing silver and gold online, providing an overview of their features and services, and finally comparing their offerings to help you make an informed decision. Top 5 Websites to Buy Silver and Gold Online Money Metals Exchange Money Metals Exchange is a reputable online dealer…

    April 5, 2023
  • The Best Silver Stocks For 2023: Your Guide to Investing In Precious Metals

    Investing in the stock market can be a great way to earn a solid return on your money. But with so many stocks available, where do you start? In this article, we’ll cover some of the best silver stocks for 2023 and explain why investing in precious metals is a smart move. So if you’re looking to diversify your portfolio and want to know more about the silver mining industry, keep reading! Introduction to Silver Investing Precious metals like silver have long been considered a safe investment, especially during times…

    February 1, 2023
  • From Tangible to Intangible: The Evolution and Decline of Specie Money

    In today’s volatile economic landscape, with inflation rates soaring, many are feeling the pinch as the value of the Federal Reserve notes continually deteriorates. An alarming illustration of this is the observation made by Dr. Thomas L. Hogan: what you could buy with a silver dollar in 1913 now requires approximately $31.00 in today’s unbacked dollars. However, there was a time when money held its value more firmly. This era was dominated by specie money. What Was Specie Money? Simply put, specie money refers to coins minted from gold, silver,…

    August 17, 2023
  • Silver Is Ready to Surge: A Strong Case for a 50% Price Increase

    Introduction: Silver, often considered the ‘poor man’s gold,’ has faced a challenging period over the past three years. The price of SLV, the largest silver ETF, has been on a slow decline, closing at $24.93 on September 18th, 2020, and now resting at $21.23, marking a 15% drop. However, the time for change appears to be upon us. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the compelling reasons why we believe silver is poised for a remarkable resurgence, with a projected gain of at least 50% over the next twelve…

    October 17, 2023
  • Why Silver Is My Favorite Investment For 2023

    The coming year is sure to bring a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets. But if you’re looking for a safe and reliable investment option, silver may be the perfect choice. With silver prices showing signs of increasing in 2023, silver investing could be a great way to diversify your portfolio and reap the rewards of a precious metal that has an incredible history of growth and stability. In this article, we’ll explore the benefits of investing in silver, the impact of the US dollar’s decline, and the best…

    January 20, 2023
  • Fortifying Your Financial Future: An In-depth Analysis of Safe Haven Assets and Strategies

    In an increasingly unpredictable and volatile economic environment, protecting your financial future is of paramount importance. Safe haven assets and hedging strategies can play a crucial role in safeguarding your wealth from potential risks and market downturns. This in-depth analysis will explore a variety of safe haven assets, including precious metals, commodities, bonds, money market funds (MMFs), and real estate, as well as strategies to help you build a well-rounded, resilient investment portfolio. Let’s delve into the world of safe haven assets and learn how to fortify your financial future!…

    April 26, 2023
  • Why Silver is the Ultimate Investment in 2023: A Comprehensive Analysis

    As we move into the new year, many investors are looking for new opportunities to add to their portfolios. One metal that is worth considering is silver. In this article, we will explore why silver is a worthwhile investment in 2023, specifically highlighting six key points: the increasing demand for silver in the solar industry, the benefits of an economic slowdown, limited new silver mine supply, the Federal Reserve’s eventual pivot to rate cuts, the benefits of a declining US dollar, and the gold-silver ratio as an indicator to buy…

    January 25, 2023
  • Diverging Paths: Retail and Institutional Investors’ Contrasting Stances on Silver in 2022

    Let’s delve into the intriguing contrast between retail and institutional investors’ perspectives on silver as an investment in 2022. As an expert in gold and silver investing, I aim to provide an in-depth understanding of the dynamics driving this divide and what it could mean for future silver investing. In 2022, a clear divergence has emerged between retail and institutional investors regarding silver investments. Retail investors have shown a marked preference for silver, with investments in silver bars and coins reaching new highs. This retail sector’s enthusiasm for silver is…

    June 23, 2023
  • How to Invest in Silver?

    Investing in silver is a popular way of investing in precious metals. Silver, like gold, has a long history as a form of currency and has been used as a store of value for centuries. It is considered to be a more affordable option than gold, making it accessible to a wider range of investors. To invest in silver, investors can choose from several different options. One way is to buy physical silver, such as silver coins or bars, and store it in a safe place. This allows investors to…

    December 9, 2022
  • Precious Metals (Especially Gold and Silver) Market Outlook 2023

    The investment market for precious metals is a constantly changing landscape. Gold and silver are two of the most popular investments for those seeking to diversify their portfolios, but what does the future hold for these precious metals in the coming years? In this article, we’ll take a look at the economic impact of precious metals investment, analyze the current market, explore future trends, evaluate the long term outlook, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of investing in gold and silver. We’ll also discuss what to consider when investing in…

    January 17, 2023

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *